Only try to backfill event if we haven't tried before recently (exponential backoff). No need to keep trying the same backfill point that fails over and over.

Fix https://github.com/matrix-org/synapse/issues/13622
Fix https://github.com/matrix-org/synapse/issues/8451

Follow-up to https://github.com/matrix-org/synapse/pull/13589

Part of https://github.com/matrix-org/synapse/issues/13356